As long anticipated, Donald Trump easily won the Iowa caucuses Monday, the first real test to see how closely the public opinion polls have gauged the continued popularity of the former president among the conservative base of the Republican Party.
The margin of victory, though, reinforces how unlikely it is that either of his two main remaining challengers, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, will be able to dethrone Trump from the top of the GOP.
Trump’s 30-point win more than doubled the previous largest margin in Iowa for a GOP victor who was not a sitting president. And he did it without ever getting on a debate stage with the other Republican candidates.
If DeSantis or Haley are to pull any threads of hope out of their lackluster Iowa results, it would be that:
- Turnout was poor, with participation at the caucuses the lowest in a quarter-century. Was that a reflection of the miserable winter weather, or a lack of enthusiasm for Trump’s candidacy? If it was the latter, that’s small consolation for the two challengers, as that means their supporters were even less enthused than were Trump’s.
- Iowa is not all that great a bellwether of the Republican electorate. Not counting sitting presidents, the last time a GOP candidate won in Iowa and went on to secure the Republican nomination was George W. Bush in 2020.
- Iowa is not a great bellwether of the nation’s electorate either. It is more rural and less racially diverse and has slightly fewer college graduates on average than the toss-up states that a Republican presidential candidate would have to win to take the White House.
DeSantis and Haley have about a week to show that Trump’s GOP coronation is not a forgone conclusion. New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary is next Tuesday. If Trump wins big there, Haley might not be around long enough to see whether she can win her home state of South Carolina a month later.
As for DeSantis, he was betting on a good showing in Iowa, devoting most of his time and resources to that Midwestern state. He didn’t get it. If he can’t finish at least second in New Hampshire — which presently looks like a long shot — his campaign is most likely sunk.
Trump is a seriously tarnished candidate, facing not only a mound of legal problems but shrinking appeal among the key demographic of independent voters. He is Democrat Joe Biden’s best hope of winning reelection.
The GOP has had better options, but its voters — if Iowa is an indication — aren’t much inclined to take them. How unfortunate.
